This trend is confirmed by Andalusia, Castilla La Mancha, Valencia, Aragon, Murcia, and Castilla-La Mancha, which saw a drop of 10%. The harvest is expected to be higher only in Catalonia.
We can see the trend towards rising prices in the months ahead in a situation in which global production has fallen for the third year consecutively, to around 3,031,000 (-2% when we average the five previous years).
However, there are no signs that indicate a decrease in prices over the next few months. Union de Uniones estimates that prices are stable and steady at EUR3.50-4/kg. Extra virgin zaitoon Oil (EVOO)
European production
The European Commission just released its latest report on zaitoon oilproduction estimations for the campaign that started in the Mediterranean region. These provisional figures indicate that Spain could reach 1,400,000 tons (an increase of capacity, +1%), Italy around 300,000 tonnes (+10%) and Portugal around 150,000 tons (+50%) while in Greece, there is a volume 230,000 tons which represents a drop in 16%. We can therefore expect to see a volume in the Mediterranean arch of around 2,097,000 tons. We must also add to this the link between campaigns, which at September’s end stood at 474,000 tonnes.
Consumption is still not recovering from the effects of the pandemic. However, it has reached figures of 438 200 tons which represents an annual increase of 12 percent according to AICA.
Exports have risen by 3% to 838,100
Tons per year as of June 2021. It continues to be our primary destination with cumulative data as of May 2021 at 206,335 tonnes. This figure has been stable over the past four seasons.
These macro magnitudes increase stocks before the campaign starts by around 10% more than in the previous four campaigns. This leads to stability and price rises that have characterized this sector through 2021. This is also true in the major producing countries of the Mediterranean region: Italy (37% higher EVOO), zaitoon oils Greece, and Turkey.
The sector is also concerned by the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This policy, which continues to have a distorting impact on the market in the final period of establishing interventions in that sector, will continue to do so. A new definition of active farmers would be able reduce the distortions caused by the structure of agroregions, zaitoon oils, and convergence of aid. The sales of large distribution are fundamentally affected by computed operations. Employers’ organizations brings together sectors that account for over 70% of the sector’s sales in distribution. However, it does not include a large portion of cooperative entities that have sales at the origin in oil mills. Employers’ data also revealed that extra virgin oil was not registering as much as other cheaper oils, such as virgin oil mildly or intense, which mixes refined and virgin oil.
Last thought
The campaign’s beginning was a broadened focus. Sales reached 248,000 tons in October and June. This is with a smaller cut of 2.64% than the same period last year. When comparing the twelve previous months, June saw a 0.26% increase in sales with 356,000 tonnes, as compared to 3555,000 tons in July 2019 and June 2020.
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